Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.
US-Iran ceasefire talks are set to begin Saturday morning in Islamabad after the Iranian delegation (reported 71 members) arrived and VP Vance travels to Pakistan; Trump warns there is "no back-up plan." Israel-Lebanon tensions persist despite a three-way diplomatic call — Israel refuses Hezbollah ceasefire talks but agrees to Lebanon negotiations, while continuing strikes including a government building in Nabatieh that killed Lebanese security personnel. Hungary heads to elections Sunday with opposition challenger Magyar leading polls. Orthodox Easter truce in Ukraine enters effect amid scepticism.
Asian Development Bank warns Middle East conflict will drag Asian GDP growth down to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. Impact ripples through manufacturing, tourism, and broader supply chains.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: "Dumb for US to Let Netanyahu Kill Diplomacy". Warns of repercussions of Israel's attacks on Lebanon in implicit response to Vance.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia formally notified Russia they deny Ukrainian overflights for attacks on Russian territory
Trilateral talks Afghanistan-Pakistan-China amid regional shifting alignments; China-India border tensions noted.
China announced a South China Sea rocket launch for Saturday 7:30pm
Ecuador hikes tariffs to 100% in feud with Colombia; President Noboa accuses Colombia's Petro of failing to take effective measures against drug trafficking. US abduction of Maduro (January) and ongoing Venezuela instability may be reshaping Andean geopolitics.
EU Commission debate on China strategy postponed; Beijing's Hormuz role noted but EU focused on immediate Middle East response. China sidelined as a result.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Vol: $19.6M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Vol: $13.2M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Vol: $3.7M
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Vol: $2.1M