Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.
US-Iran ceasefire talks underway in Islamabad amid mutual recriminations over preconditions; Iranian delegation arrived Friday evening but Foreign Minister Araghchi and IRGC commander reportedly clashed over negotiating approach. Israel-Lebanon-US three-way meeting confirmed for Tuesday at State Department. Orthodox Easter ceasefire in Ukraine entered into force at 4pm Saturday — Bryansk attack raises violation concerns, Kremlin claims truce would hold "if Zelensky decided." Saudi Arabia cuts oil output after Houthi attacks; EU airlines warn of jet fuel shortages in three weeks without Hormuz resolution.
Asian Development Bank warns Middle East conflict will drag Asian GDP growth down to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. Impact ripples through manufacturing, tourism, and broader supply chains.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: "Dumb for US to Let Netanyahu Kill Diplomacy". Warns of repercussions of Israel's attacks on Lebanon in implicit response to Vance.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia formally notified Russia they deny Ukrainian overflights for attacks on Russian territory
Trilateral talks Afghanistan-Pakistan-China amid regional shifting alignments; China-India border tensions noted.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Pyongyang; Kim Jong Un declared bilateral ties "reached a new level"
China announced a South China Sea rocket launch for Saturday 7:30pm
Ecuador hikes tariffs to 100% in feud with Colombia; President Noboa accuses Colombia's Petro of failing to take effective measures against drug trafficking. US abduction of Maduro (January) and ongoing Venezuela instability may be reshaping Andean geopolitics.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Vol: $19.6M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Vol: $13.2M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Vol: $3.7M
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Vol: $2.3M
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
Vol: $2.1M