SI

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Volume

$2,345,005

Polymarket ID

610256

Data Points

48

Probability Chart

Yes 4.2%
No 95.8%
3.2% 3.7% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 4.2% 04/10 04/10 04/10 04/10 04/10 04/10 04/11

Context

Trump considers pulling US troops from Europe (Reuters exclusive). Market pricing low but stable probability of NATO confrontation.

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