Will China Invade Taiwan by End of 2026
Volume
$19.6M
Polymarket ID
From brief-1713: $19.6M volume, 8.7%
Data Points
0
Probability Chart
Yes 8.7%
No 91.3%
Insufficient history data for chart
Context
High-volume prediction market. Xi-KMT Cheng Li-wun meeting shows Beijing continuing diplomatic overtures while maintaining military pressure. 8.7% base rate vs 51.5% in entertainment-framed question suggests different risk calibration.
Related Events
Xi KMT Beijing Talks (Xi Kmt Beijing Talks 2026)