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Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.

2026-04-12 · 00:53 UTC

US-Iran Islamabad talks stretched past 14 hours with no agreement; both sides described disagreements as significant and talks resume Sunday. Iran claims the "upper hand" and the IRGC has threatened a "strong response" to any unauthorized Hormuz transit, while the US says two destroyers transited for mine-clearing — Iran denies this. US intelligence indicates China is preparing to deliver air defense systems to Iran within weeks (China denies; Xi personally denies). A 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in effect but already reports violations in Donetsk, Kursk, and Belgorod. Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed 18+ including 13 Lebanese state security personnel, with Hezbollah firing on Israeli positions and the US guaranteeing Beirut's safety until April 14 talks. ---

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