Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.
US-Iran talks in Islamabad enter critical phase with Vance en route to Pakistan; IRGC commander and FM Araghchi reportedly clashed over negotiating team composition while JPost reports US side has "low expectations." Israel-Lebanon tensions escalate — Hezbollah rocket damages 1,500-year-old church in Israel, Netanyahu removes Spain from Gaza coordination centre. Orthodox Easter truce holds in Ukraine with Bryansk violation reported. Major new development: Reuters exclusive reports Trump weighs pulling some US troops from Europe amid NATO strains. Hungary election Sunday — massive anti-Orbán rally in Budapest, Trump tells Hungarians to vote Orbán. IAEA chief warns about potential hits on Iranian nuclear sites. Philippines unveils new coast guard command in South China Sea.
Asian Development Bank warns Middle East conflict will drag Asian GDP growth down to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. Impact ripples through manufacturing, tourism, and broader supply chains.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: "Dumb for US to Let Netanyahu Kill Diplomacy". Warns of repercussions of Israel's attacks on Lebanon in implicit response to Vance.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia formally notified Russia they deny Ukrainian overflights for attacks on Russian territory
Trilateral talks Afghanistan-Pakistan-China amid regional shifting alignments; China-India border tensions noted.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Pyongyang; Kim Jong Un declared bilateral ties "reached a new level"
China announced a South China Sea rocket launch for Saturday 7:30pm
Ecuador hikes tariffs to 100% in feud with Colombia; President Noboa accuses Colombia's Petro of failing to take effective measures against drug trafficking. US abduction of Maduro (January) and ongoing Venezuela instability may be reshaping Andean geopolitics.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Vol: $19.6M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Vol: $13.2M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Vol: $3.7M
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Vol: $2.3M
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
Vol: $2.1M