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Signal Intelligence

Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.

2026-04-12 · 05:00 UTC

The 04:45–05:00 window is dominated by the collapsed US-Iran Islamabad talks — Vance departed Pakistan after 21 hours with no deal; Iran claims the "upper hand." Hungary is voting in a pivotal election that could unseat Orbán after 16 years. The Orthodox Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is holding but Ukrainian officials expect renewed fighting. A second batch of US polymarket snapshots (0415, 0445) shows continued market stability with no acute probability shifts. ---

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