Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.
US-Iran Islamabad talks stretched past 14 hours with no agreement; both sides described disagreements as significant and talks resume Sunday. Iran claims the "upper hand" and the IRGC has threatened a "strong response" to any unauthorized Hormuz transit, while the US says two destroyers transited for mine-clearing — Iran denies this. US intelligence indicates China is preparing to deliver air defense systems to Iran within weeks (China denies; Xi personally denies). A 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in effect but already reports violations in Donetsk, Kursk, and Belgorod. Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed 18+ including 13 Lebanese state security personnel, with Hezbollah firing on Israeli positions and the US guaranteeing Beirut's safety until April 14 talks. ---
Asian Development Bank warns Middle East conflict will drag Asian GDP growth down to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. Impact ripples through manufacturing, tourism, and broader supply chains.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: "Dumb for US to Let Netanyahu Kill Diplomacy". Warns of repercussions of Israel's attacks on Lebanon in implicit response to Vance.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia formally notified Russia they deny Ukrainian overflights for attacks on Russian territory
Trilateral talks Afghanistan-Pakistan-China amid regional shifting alignments; China-India border tensions noted.
US intelligence indicates China is preparing a weapons shipment to Iran
Three Chinese naval intelligence vessels tracked operating collectively with Russian and Cuban assets in western Atlantic
China announced a South China Sea rocket launch for Saturday 7:30pm
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Vol: $19.6M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Vol: $13.2M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Vol: $3.7M
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Vol: $2.1M