Geopolitical event tracking, prediction markets, and narrative analysis.
US-Iran Islamabad talks extended into second day with no agreement reached; core sticking points remain Hormuz control, Iranian asset unfreezing, and Lebanon ceasefire scope. Israel continues strikes on Lebanon and Gaza despite ceasefire architecture, approving 34 new West Bank settlements. Orthodox Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is holding but with reported violations in three regions. Crisis Group assesses Hormuz future under fragile ceasefire.
Asian Development Bank warns Middle East conflict will drag Asian GDP growth down to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. Impact ripples through manufacturing, tourism, and broader supply chains.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: "Dumb for US to Let Netanyahu Kill Diplomacy". Warns of repercussions of Israel's attacks on Lebanon in implicit response to Vance.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia formally notified Russia they deny Ukrainian overflights for attacks on Russian territory
Trilateral talks Afghanistan-Pakistan-China amid regional shifting alignments; China-India border tensions noted.
US intelligence indicates China is preparing a weapons shipment to Iran
Three Chinese naval intelligence vessels tracked operating collectively with Russian and Cuban assets in western Atlantic
China announced a South China Sea rocket launch for Saturday 7:30pm
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Vol: $19.6M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Vol: $13.2M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Vol: $3.7M
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Vol: $2.1M